Examining over 200 tide gauge stations worldwide, researchers have found no global acceleration in sea level rise, contrary to wild predictions by climate alarmists and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

For decades, the public has been warned that human-driven climate change is causing sea levels to surge at alarming rates, threatening to swallow coastal cities by the end of the century. But a landmark new peer-reviewed study has found no evidence that sea level rise is accelerating worldwide.

Published in the Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, the paper by Dutch engineer Hessel Voortman and researcher Rob de Vos analysed hundreds of tide gauge records. Their conclusion is stark: “Our analysis of more than 200 tide gauge stations around the world shows that there is no global acceleration of sea level rise”.

A First-of-Its-Kind Global Analysis

Unlike previous studies that relied heavily on climate models, Voortman and de Vos used observed data from tide stations stretching back at least 60 years. They found that the mean rate of sea level rise remains steady at around 1.5 mm per year — about 15 cm per century — similar to rates observed in the 20th century.

“The average rate of sea level rise in 2020 is around 1.5 mm per year,” Voortman explained. “This is significantly lower than the 3 to 4 mm per year often reported by climate scientists in scientific literature and the media.”

Their analysis showed that claims of acceleration are confined to a handful of isolated sites, typically explained by local conditions such as earthquakes, groundwater extraction or sediment shifts. “This pattern is inconsistent with sea level acceleration driven by global phenomena,” the authors wrote.

Models v Reality

One of the study’s most significant findings is the gap between observed sea level data and projections from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The IPCC’s 2021 report projected much higher rates of sea level rise, yet Voortman and de Vos found that “on average, the rate of rise projected by the IPCC is biased upward with approximately 2 mm per year in comparison with the observed rate”.

In other words, widely circulated claims of seas rising by three to ten feet this century are not supported by measured data. Instead, the study suggests that sea levels could rise by only six inches — about the same increase seen in the previous century.

“The graph shows the majority of locations to be above the blue line,” the authors noted of their comparison chart. “This indicates that the rate of sea level rise in the projections is too high compared to the empirical rate”.

Local Factors, Not Global Warming

Where acceleration was detected, it was almost always linked to localised factors rather than a global climate signal. For example, at Ayukawa in Japan, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake caused the land to drop suddenly by more than 80 cm, leading to a sharp spike in recorded sea levels.

In Bangkok and Mumbai, excessive groundwater extraction and rapid urban development explained unusual patterns of rise.

Voortman stressed that such anomalies should not be confused with evidence of global acceleration. “Nine stations did show an acceleration,” he explained. “But these stations are mostly located near stations that show no acceleration in sea level rise, making it unlikely that a global phenomenon such as global warming caused by CO2 is the underlying cause.”

A Stark Contrast with Media Warnings

These findings stand in sharp contrast with decades of dire headlines.

In 2019, New York Times columnist David Wallace-Wells warned, “We will see at least four feet of sea level rise and possibly ten by the end of the century.” That same year, The Atlantic declared, “The oceans we know won’t survive climate change.” The lattercited Princeton scientist Michael Oppenheimer, who predicted that sea levels would rise by more than 2 feet 9 inches by 2100.

Voortman was blunt about the failure to test projections against reality: “It is crazy that it had not been done,” he said, describing his review of whether any global study had actually compared projections with observations. “There were none.”

His work began with a 2023 paper focused on the Dutch coast, where he found no acceleration despite repeated warnings. That led to this global analysis with de Vos, revealing the same result worldwide.

De Vos, in an article reflecting on the research, criticised what he called the “IPCC narrative” around sea level rise. “One of the ‘crown jewels’ of the IPCC narrative is rising sea levels,” he wrote. “But our analysis shows that acceleration is not statistically demonstrable at almost all stations.”

The study is already being described by some commentators as a monumental embarrassment. Michael Shellenberger, a prominent climate analyst, called it “a massive scientific scandal” for showing that widely repeated claims of acceleration were unsupported by observational data.

For many Australians, the constant drumbeat of catastrophic climate warnings has been a source of fear, particularly for young people. The latest study raises important questions: if sea level rise is steady but not accelerating, how should Christians respond to narratives of crisis and alarm?

As believers, we are called to be people of truth. Scripture reminds us that God “did not give us a spirit of fear, but of power, love and self-discipline” (2 Timothy 1:7). While creation care remains vital, Christians can resist being swept along by exaggerated or misleading claims that foster anxiety rather than stewardship.

Voortman and de Vos’s research offers a rare moment of clarity in the climate debate. Their careful analysis of real-world data shows that global acceleration in sea level rise is simply not occurring. Instead, the seas are rising at the same modest pace as the last century, shaped more by local geology and human activity than by sweeping climate forces.

For policymakers, engineers, and families alike, the message is clear: do not build decisions on fear or exaggeration, but on truth grounded in evidence. The truth revealed in God’s Word. We know how the story of this fallen world plays out. Satan’s rule over this world is coming to an end. Next on God’s agenda for this fallen world is Jesus Millennial reign (http://www.millennialkingdom.net). In order to fulfill the covenant promises made to Abraham, David and the new covenant Israel’s Messiah, Jesus must rule the nations of the world. We have had 6,000 years of Satan’s rule now we will have 1000 years of Jesus rule before God destroys this cosmos and He creates a new Heaven and new Earth where only righteousness dwells.

“Then I saw a new heaven and a new earth, for the first heaven and the first earth had passed away, and the sea was no more. And I saw the holy city, new Jerusalem, coming down out of heaven from God, prepared as a bride adorned for her husband. And I heard a loud voice from the throne saying, “Behold, the dwelling place of God is with man. He will dwell with them, and they will be his people, and God himself will be with them as their God.” Revelation 21:1-3